Question

Answer the following questions:

1) Over the past 125 years housing in the US appreciated at a real rate of approximately ____________%. This means that if over the same time period inflation averaged 3%, the nominal US housing appreciation was roughly ____________%, on average.

2) Assuming that the current price-to-income ratio for housing in Florida is 7.
a) What would the price-to-income ratio be in 50 years if income will grow at a pace of 3%/year and housing will appreciate at a pace of 7%/year on average?
b) Can these salary growth and housing appreciation pattern continue in the long run?
Explain!

3) What can we learn from the fact that housing prices for a specific location through time are bounded within some range of price-to-income? What can we say about prices when they near the bottom/top of that historic range?

4) Explain how the housing “wealth effect” may positively or negatively affect the overall economy.

5) What are the three main factors that affect housing price appreciation over the long run?

6) Assuming that during a given year average income in Oregon increases by 4% while inflation is 3%. What will be the Oregon real estate price appreciation during that year?
Explain!

7) What is the difference between a junior and a senior mortgage? Which one is riskier from the lender point of view? Why?

8) You would like to borrow $150,000 using a 15-year CPM at a fixed rate of 3%. What will be your monthly payment if the mortgage if fully amortized? 40% amortized? 75% amortized? Please use your calculator to receive the answers and show your work.

9) What is the difference between a negatively amortize mortgage and a reversed annuity mortgage? How are they similar?

10) 4 years ago you bought a home for $200,000, which at the time was 3% below the home’s fair market value. Since then, the market value of your home appreciated at a compounded rate of 2.5% annually, on average. What is your current equity in the home if you were to sell it at a fair market value? Assume that when you purchased the home you took a $160,000, 5%, interest-only mortgage and made the minimum required payments.

11) You consider buying an office building where are expect to collect $42K/month in rent and spend 14K/month on operating expenses during the first year. The asking price on this building is $5.0M. You project that the NOI of the building will grow at 2.5% per year indefinitely, and that you will be able to sell the property in 5 years for a CAP of 6.25%.
a) What is your “going in” CAP if we were to pay the asking price?
b) How will your “going in” CAP change if you can negotiate a purchase price that is $400K below the asking price? Will that affect your expected return if you still hold the same projections about income, expenses and NOI growth?
c) For how much do you expect to sell the building in 5 years?
d) All other things equal, for how much do you expect to sell the building in 5 years if due to change in management and improved efficiency you collect 45K/month in rent and spend only 12K/month on operating expenses during the first year?

12) All other things equal, do you expect to pay higher or lower CAP on a particular apartment building given each of the following scenario:
a) The expected NOI growth rate is higher than average
b) The building’s quality of construction is lower than average
c) The interest rate in the market is expected to increase significantly in the near future
d) The yield on 10- and 30-year debt instrument is very low
e) The chance of more competition from new apartments complexes in the area is high
f) You would like to finance the building with a mortgage rather than pay the for it in cash

13) You were approved for a $200,000, 15-year, negatively amortized, fixed rate mortgage with an interest rate of 6.0% (with no points or origination fee). Would you expect your monthly payments to be higher or lower than $1,000? Explain.

14) Calculate the first year DCR for an income producing property that is priced at 5M and has an expected CAP of 8% given the following scenarios. Show your work.
a) 75% of the property is financed with an interest only mortgage at a rate of 6%
b) 65% of the property is financed with a 20-year CAM at a rate of 6%
c) The monthly mortgage payment on the property during the first year of ownership is $18K, of which 3K is principal and 15K is interest, on average.

15) Which type of income producing property has the most volatile NOI? Which has the least
volatile NOI? Why?

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