Risk, Uncertainty and Heuristics: Summary (1220 words)

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Risk, Uncertainty and Heuristics
Shabnam Mousavi, Johns Hopkins University
Gerd Gigerenzer, Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Forthcoming, Journal of Business Research

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Risk, Uncertainty and Heuristics
Decisions are made in every aspect of life. All types of organizations and individuals are confronted with situations in life where they have to decide amongst several alternatives and take the one which is in the best fit with their goals. Decision making takes place under three types of situations – certainty, risk and uncertainty. Certainty refers to the situations when the decision maker has complete information at end and knows what states of outcome will occur and the resulting consequence. This removes the scope for guesses in decision making. For example, when an individual knows that the price of a commodity is $10 and he has $100, he is certain that he can buy 10 units of the commodity.
Risk refers to the situation in which the decision-maker knows the different states of nature that would occur and can also assign probabilities to the different states....
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