a) (3 points) a naïve model
b) (3 points) a moving average model (n = 4)
c) (3 points) a weighted moving average model (wt-1 = 0.25; wt-2 = 0.35; wt-3 = 0.25; wt-4 = 0.15)
d) (3 points) an exponential smoothing model (alpha= 0.50; F1 = A1)
e) (3 points) a simple linear trend model (not seasonally adjusted); and
f) (3 points) determine the seasonal indices and seasonal factors for each quarter
g) (3 points – bonus) use the solution in part (f) to determine a seasonally adjusted forecast.
For each of the models above, provide the following measures of forecast accuracy: Bias, MAD, MAPE. Which model do you recommend to him for this data set?
Quarter Ice Cream Sales (000) (gal)
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